New Delhi: Failure of President Vladimir Putin to arrest Kyiv after offensive 40 days Red Army long to Ukraine will have domestic consequences because not only strong Russians but also “unlimited” XI Jinping friends.Russian victory which is expected to be short and determined has now turned into a swamp for Z soldiers without signs of the end of the war or victory for Moscow soon. It not only disappointed the big plan of President Putin but also disappointing Applecart from fellow President XI Jinping.Just like rapid Russian victory in Ukraine will work support China and Communist ideology, a bitter military contest that dragged without the purpose of the Clearcut war achieved must make strong people in Beijing. The reason is:
First, China is the most important trader in the world and a long war in Ukraine has disappointed the entire global trade with broad consequences — from shipping, land transportation, aviation, port to return insurance.
Secondly, China has weak energy security architecture and like India depends on imported hydrocarbons to trigger its economy. The increase in oil prices because of the war and the global uncertainty produced will be about China’s economy hard. The US, on the other hand, does not depend on other countries for global energy needs and will become a long-term recipient of the Ukrainian War with NATO consolidation and sales of American hardware to European countries.
Third, the fight installed by Ukraine with tactical support and NATO technology will make China think twice as than attack Taiwan. Order from Ukraine clearly. There will be all-out military efforts by us and their allies to drive the PLA invasion to Taiwan.
Fourth, the biggest lesson of the Ukrainian war until now is that Russian hardware is aware of technology and does not match prominent weapons such as Stinger and shoulder Javelin firing missiles, armed drones and air supervision and air supervision. With China like India which has a Russian or Russian design platform, Beijing must be worried about the ability to make war like India. In fact, the joke traveled around the southern corridors after the Ukrainian attack was that Russia gave a weapon to Pakistan is not a bad idea given their return rate.
Fifth, when President Xi Jinping took control of China in 2012, in his first secret speech to his communist colleagues, he asked them to analyze the autumn and split the Soviet Union and attract lessons from it. On the Beijing winter Olympic night this year, President XI vowed unlimited friendship with the Russian President who visited Putin before he started a destructive Ukrainian business., Russia who lost was not good for the communist autocrat regime and could potentially disrupt Chinese themselves.
Even though it was proven that the more war dragged, it would make President Putin politically vulnerable on the day and more dependent on China for economic and military support. Increasing Russian dependence in China will make life more difficult for new Delhi but the loss of Putin’s face in Ukraine can ask questions about the long-term President XI. The two President Putin and President XI were lifelong leaders until 2035 with the last to find the third term as the Secretary General of the Chinese Communist Party (BPK) later this fall.
Russian autocrats are now more susceptible to internal interference because the economy will achieve a big blow because the expenditure of war and public moral will decline because of the inability of the Red Army to change the regime in Kyiv. In the event that the Ukrainian war played in reverse and the change in the regime in Moscow occurred with a pro-west leader who was in power, the table would light up China.
